Tonight: 8 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
puckmodel
← All recaps

2022-02-18 · United Center

1 – 0Final/SO

DAL beat CHI 1–0 in a shootout. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. Jake Oettinger saved 4.4 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
29 – 34
Expected goals
2.2 – 2.6
xG share
CHI 54%
Home-ice start
CHI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

DAL goalCHI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

DALCHI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

DAL
65:00 TOI
GSAx +4.40
+4.40
CHI
Marc-Andre Fleury
65:00 TOI
GSAx +2.11
+2.11
DAL
Jacob Peterson
0 G, 0 A · 10:33 TOI
Finishing −0.12 · Shootout +1.05
+0.96

Rough nights

DAL
0 G, 0 A · 21:01 TOI
On-ice −0.19 · Finishing −0.35 · Shootout −0.45
−1.02
DAL
Alexander Radulov
0 G, 0 A · 11:29 TOI
On-ice +0.06 · Finishing −0.24 · Penalties −0.19 · Shootout −0.45
−0.81
CHI
Lukas Reichel
0 G, 0 A · 17:41 TOI
Finishing −0.27 · Shootout −0.45
−0.76

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalDAL–CHIWin prob.

Every player

Show both lineups

DAL

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Jacob Peterson C10:33+0.96+0.02−0.12−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.02+1.05
Jason Robertson L20:41+0.48−0.01−0.23+0.03−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.70
Esa Lindell D18:55+0.09−0.05−0.10+0.00+0.05+0.19+0.00+0.00
Jani Hakanpää D11:46+0.08+0.09+0.01−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Joel Kiviranta L9:36+0.05+0.06−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Ryan Suter D25:43+0.05+0.07−0.05−0.00+0.03+0.00+0.00+0.00
Radek Faksa C13:32+0.02+0.04−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.01−0.00
Michael Raffl L10:58+0.01+0.02−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Luke Glendening C12:35−0.02−0.02−0.03−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.04−0.00
Thomas Harley D11:38−0.02−0.02+0.01+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Miro Heiskanen D27:32−0.05−0.05+0.01−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jamie Benn L16:11−0.12−0.22−0.00+0.06−0.00+0.00+0.05−0.00
John Klingberg D26:19−0.29−0.27+0.01+0.01−0.04+0.00+0.00+0.00
Denis Gurianov R20:16−0.55−0.26−0.30−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00−0.00
Roope Hintz C21:16−0.56−0.02−0.26+0.00+0.00+0.19−0.02−0.45
Joe Pavelski C20:59−0.64−0.07−0.21+0.00+0.03+0.00−0.03−0.36
Alexander Radulov R11:29−0.81+0.06−0.24+0.00+0.00−0.19+0.00−0.45
Tyler Seguin C21:01−1.02−0.19−0.35+0.02−0.01+0.00−0.04−0.45
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Jake Oettinger G65:00+4.40

CHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Alex DeBrincat R21:36+0.42+0.31−0.62+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.01+0.70
Caleb Jones D19:34+0.16+0.17+0.01−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Alec Regula D11:54+0.06+0.07+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Henrik Borgstrom C9:01+0.02+0.04−0.02−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
MacKenzie Entwistle R9:46−0.01+0.00−0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Sam Lafferty C14:31−0.08−0.09−0.00−0.02+0.02+0.00+0.02−0.00
Connor Murphy D22:10−0.12−0.05−0.08−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Seth Jones D27:36−0.12+0.20−0.27−0.05−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Dominik Kubalik L13:18−0.14+0.15−0.00−0.02+0.00+0.19+0.00−0.45
Kirby Dach C13:43−0.16−0.14−0.00+0.00−0.01+0.00−0.01−0.00
Brandon Hagel L21:54−0.16+0.05−0.03+0.02−0.01−0.19+0.00−0.00
Dylan Strome C17:25−0.17+0.04−0.15+0.02−0.00+0.00−0.07−0.00
Ryan Carpenter C12:02−0.23+0.06−0.30−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.02−0.00
Calvin de Haan D19:59−0.41−0.05−0.17+0.01−0.02−0.19+0.00+0.00
Philipp Kurashev C11:40−0.58−0.09−0.23−0.00−0.00+0.19+0.01−0.45
Patrick Kane R24:37−0.68+0.05−0.48+0.13−0.03+0.00+0.00−0.36
Jake McCabe D20:22−0.72−0.06−0.03−0.00+0.01−0.19+0.00−0.45
Lukas Reichel L17:41−0.76−0.03−0.27−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.01−0.45
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Marc-Andre Fleury G65:00+2.11

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.