PIT beat PHI 5–4 in overtime. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kris Letang scored at 0:31 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Casey DeSmith allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:47 | PHI | Claude Giroux from Cam Atkinson, Oskar Lindblom | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 14:09 | PIT | Dominik Simon from Marcus Pettersson, Brian Boyle | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 16:34 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Evgeni Malkin | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 0:57 | PHI | Scott Laughton unassisted | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 10:43 | PHI | Nick Seeler from Travis Konecny, James van Riemsdyk | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 17:09 | PHI | Justin Braun from James van Riemsdyk, Scott Laughton | 4–2 | 71% → 88% |
| P3 12:36 | PIT | Jake GuentzelPP from Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby | 4–3 | 3% → 17% |
| P3 12:54 | PIT | Chad Ruhwedel from Danton Heinen, Jeff Carter | 4–4 | 17% → 51% |
| OT 0:31 | PIT | Kris Letang unassisted | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Seeler D | 20:44 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.09 | +0.93 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Braun D | 23:53 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.17 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 23:39 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.13 | +0.63 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 18:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.07 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 19:29 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 20:33 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.15 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Ivan Provorov D | 29:56 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 10:14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 17:12 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack MacEwen C | 3:58 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 7:24 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Cates C | 4:05 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Willman C | 15:23 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 12:54 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 23:20 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Bunnaman C | 9:21 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Isaac Ratcliffe L | 12:46 | −0.44 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 22:29 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.15 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 60:31 | −1.62 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.18 | +0.75 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Kris Letang D | 27:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.37 | +0.53 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dominik Simon C | 8:40 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.09 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 16:53 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.04 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:46 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.17 | +0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 13:23 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:52 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 23:08 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 19:22 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 13:56 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 11:26 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 13:31 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 14:39 | −0.14 | +0.10 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 18:48 | −0.19 | +0.09 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 10:21 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 16:44 | −0.25 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Boyle C | 10:30 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 15:57 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 60:31 | −1.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.