MTL beat NYR 4–3. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jeff Petry scored at 19:29 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 49% to 96%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:45 | MTL | Ryan Poehling from Michael Pezzetta, William Lagesson | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 4:14 | NYR | Ryan ReavesPP from Patrik Nemeth, Kevin Rooney | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 19:51 | MTL | Jeff Petry from Christian Dvorak, Josh Anderson | 2–1 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 4:15 | NYR | Frank Vatrano from Barclay Goodrow | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 12:08 | MTL | Mike Hoffman from Nick Suzuki, Joel Edmundson | 3–2 | 49% → 82% |
| P3 15:41 | NYR | Ryan StromeSH from Barclay Goodrow | 3–3 | 11% → 49% |
| P3 19:29 | MTL | Jeff Petry from Christian Dvorak | 4–3 | 49% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Petry D | 21:52 | 2 | +1.77 | −0.08 | +1.71 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Hoffman C | 16:16 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.00 | +0.87 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:56 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.04 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 20:25 | +0.13 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 20:25 | +0.11 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 12:38 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 17:17 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 14:24 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 15:37 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 16:40 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 12:27 | −0.06 | +0.11 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Laurent Dauphin C | 13:01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:18 | 2 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 10:27 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Harris D | 17:08 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 21:07 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 17:45 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Rem Pitlick C | 17:17 | −0.40 | +0.14 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 60:00 | −0.32 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Strome C | 17:20 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.05 | +0.85 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 16:43 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.02 | +0.52 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 14:00 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.03 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Braun D | 18:37 | +0.19 | +0.23 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 17:09 | +0.18 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 14:48 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:28 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Zac Jones D | 22:55 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 14:13 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 20:13 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 18:07 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 15:31 | −0.13 | +0.13 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 15:02 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Libor Hajek D | 21:00 | −0.19 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 11:07 | −0.32 | +0.04 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 15:51 | −0.37 | −0.10 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 12:10 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 13:55 | −0.79 | −0.12 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 59:51 | −1.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.