WSH beat PHI 5–3. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Garnet Hathaway scored at 18:48 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 50% to 95%. Martin Jones allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:35 | WSH | Michal Kempny from Nic Dowd, Garnet Hathaway | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 8:54 | PHI | Gerry MayhewPP from Oskar Lindblom, Isaac Ratcliffe | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 12:49 | WSH | Joe SnivelyPP from Conor Sheary, Dmitry Orlov | 2–1 | 48% → 69% |
| P2 19:01 | PHI | Travis Sanheim from Travis Konecny, Claude Giroux | 2–2 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 16:09 | PHI | Gerry Mayhew from Travis Sanheim, Justin Braun | 2–3 | 51% → 90% |
| P3 17:03 | WSH | Garnet Hathaway from John Carlson, Carl Hagelin | 3–3 | 8% → 49% |
| P3 18:48 | WSH | Garnet Hathaway from Carl Hagelin | 4–3 | 50% → 95% |
| P3 19:11 | WSH | John CarlsonEN from Nic Dowd | 5–3 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garnet Hathaway R | 13:40 | 2 | 1 | +1.45 | +0.02 | +1.24 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Michal Kempny D | 16:29 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.11 | +0.87 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Snively C | 14:48 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.10 | +0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 20:25 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 19:39 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 12:28 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Lars Eller C | 11:32 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 9:05 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 12:31 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 25:58 | 1 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Conor Sheary L | 14:19 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 20:05 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 8:46 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 20:02 | −0.30 | −0.11 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 19:47 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 15:48 | −0.30 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 16:26 | 2 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 18:55 | −0.45 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 60:00 | +0.61 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerry Mayhew C | 15:01 | 2 | +1.48 | +0.21 | +1.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 21:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.14 | +0.65 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Claude Giroux R | 22:07 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.19 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.17 | |
| Nick Seeler D | 19:49 | +0.16 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 23:12 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack MacEwen C | 9:29 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Bunnaman C | 10:50 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 26:42 | −0.07 | +0.24 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 11:12 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 12:18 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Lindblom L | 14:51 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 9:10 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 16:40 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 16:51 | −0.18 | +0.16 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 19:18 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.18 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Isaac Ratcliffe L | 11:02 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Max Willman C | 12:45 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 19:53 | −0.29 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 59:45 | −1.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.