CBJ beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jakub Voracek scored at 0:16 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Dustin Tokarski allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:05 | CBJ | Jack Roslovic from Vladislav Gavrikov, Trey Fix-Wolansky | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 3:27 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Henri Jokiharju, Tage Thompson | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 18:23 | BUF | Kyle Okposo from Mark Jankowski, Mark Pysyk | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 0:12 | BUF | Alex Tuch from Jeff Skinner, Tage Thompson | 1–3 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 4:48 | CBJ | Brendan Gaunce from Dean Kukan | 2–3 | 6% → 21% |
| P3 14:25 | CBJ | Oliver BjorkstrandPP from Patrik Laine, Jakub Voracek | 3–3 | 13% → 49% |
| OT 0:16 | CBJ | Jakub Voracek from Zach Werenski, Boone Jenner | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Gaunce C | 8:45 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.09 | +0.88 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 9:09 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.08 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 17:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.04 | +0.85 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 17:29 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.09 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trey Fix-Wolansky R | 8:18 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dean Kukan D | 15:36 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 27:47 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 17:35 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 14:12 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 24:05 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 20:29 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 16:28 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 14:37 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 15:27 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 9:46 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 23:13 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 17:38 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 20:57 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 60:16 | −1.01 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:09 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.17 | +0.93 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 19:53 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.32 | +0.33 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 14:59 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.07 | +0.73 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 19:01 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.29 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 22:56 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.24 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 14:19 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:14 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 16:02 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Hagg D | 15:46 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 10:14 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 15:15 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 18:01 | −0.10 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 11:20 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 14:24 | −0.21 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Fitzgerald D | 20:48 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 13:34 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:25 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.24 | −0.51 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 13:34 | −0.42 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Tokarski G | 60:16 | −2.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.