VGK beat NYI 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (VGK 2.7, NYI 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Shea Theodore scored on the power play at 19:12 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 4% to 50%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:56 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Zach Whitecloud, Reilly Smith | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:08 | NYI | Brock NelsonPP from Noah Dobson, Oliver Wahlstrom | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P3 5:46 | VGK | Shea TheodorePP from Chandler Stephenson, Max Pacioretty | 2–1 | 49% → 76% |
| P3 14:19 | NYI | Kieffer Bellows from Zach Parise | 2–2 | 14% → 51% |
| P3 17:40 | NYI | Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Oliver Wahlstrom, Anders Lee | 2–3 | 51% → 93% |
| P3 19:12 | VGK | Shea TheodorePP from Alex Pietrangelo | 3–3 | 4% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Theodore D | 23:35 | 2 | +1.94 | −0.35 | +1.58 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.70 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 20:23 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.18 | +0.39 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 9:45 | +0.33 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 22:42 | +0.31 | +0.37 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 21:34 | +0.17 | +0.21 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 15:18 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 9:06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 16:47 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 19:42 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Dylan Coghlan D | 7:14 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 23:40 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 12:08 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 10:42 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 29:50 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.21 | −0.47 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Roy C | 15:09 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.31 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:26 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 17:09 | −0.67 | −0.34 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 16:20 | 1 | −0.76 | −0.59 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 64:19 | +0.90 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieffer Bellows L | 7:40 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 20:57 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.17 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 23:49 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 18:05 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.12 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:37 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.08 | −0.00 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 16:47 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 12:33 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 21:57 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 15:35 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 21:33 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 14:57 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 15:02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 24:33 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 13:49 | −0.25 | +0.13 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 18:06 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 16:36 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.28 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 21:07 | −0.48 | +0.30 | −0.48 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 15:05 | 2 | −0.61 | −0.21 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.36 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 65:00 | −0.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.