EDM beat SEA 5–3. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Warren Foegele scored at 8:54 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 48% to 79%. Stuart Skinner allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:18 | SEA | Ryan Donato from Morgan Geekie, Haydn Fleury | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:07 | SEA | Jared McCann from Jordan Eberle, Jaden Schwartz | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 13:05 | EDM | Evan Bouchard from Cooper Marody, Leon Draisaitl | 1–2 | 16% → 30% |
| P1 17:08 | EDM | Warren FoegelePP from Kailer Yamamoto, Leon Draisaitl | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 12:52 | EDM | Colton Sceviour from Connor McDavid | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 16:33 | SEA | Carson Soucy from Jeremy Lauzon, Jordan Eberle | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 8:54 | EDM | Warren Foegele from Evan Bouchard, Leon Draisaitl | 4–3 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 19:08 | EDM | Connor McDavidEN from Zack Kassian, Cody Ceci | 5–3 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warren Foegele L | 19:45 | 2 | +1.37 | +0.32 | +1.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 17:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.23 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Colton Sceviour C | 15:02 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.11 | +0.59 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Slater Koekkoek D | 16:02 | +0.34 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 20:26 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.25 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Benson L | 15:10 | +0.22 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:08 | 3 | +0.21 | +0.28 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zack Kassian R | 16:07 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 26:09 | +0.11 | +0.32 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 14:49 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 16:12 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Seth Griffith C | 5:37 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cooper Marody C | 6:04 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 22:03 | −0.09 | +0.10 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 17:05 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 23:12 | 1 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.28 | −0.60 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 20:15 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 60:00 | −1.35 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Soucy D | 18:42 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.02 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 17:01 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.03 | +0.54 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 11:01 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.44 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 10:00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 10:19 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 20:20 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 18:01 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:49 | 2 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 13:01 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 21:28 | −0.24 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander True C | 9:07 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 21:56 | −0.26 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 23:04 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 22:20 | −0.28 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:17 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 13:32 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 17:13 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 17:04 | −0.53 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Driedger G | 58:26 | −0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.