FLA beat MIN 6–2. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mason Marchment scored at 12:29 of the first, moving FLA’s win probability from 47% to 64%. Cam Talbot allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:07 |  MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Jared Spurgeon, Mats Zuccarello | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P1 10:02 |  FLA | Mason Marchment unassisted | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 12:29 | FLA | Mason Marchment from Anton Lundell, Sam Reinhart | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 8:38 | FLA | Anthony Duclair from Jonathan Huberdeau, Aaron Ekblad | 3–1 | 68% → 84% |
| P3 1:41 | FLA | Aaron EkbladPP from Anthony Duclair, Jonathan Huberdeau | 4–1 | 91% → 98% |
| P3 9:42 | MIN | Mats ZuccarelloPP from Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek | 4–2 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 13:18 | FLA | Carter VerhaegheEN from MacKenzie Weegar | 5–2 | 97% → 100% |
| P3 14:33 | FLA | Mason MarchmentEN from Anton Lundell | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Marchment L | 13:27 | 3 | +1.91 | +0.05 | +1.48 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 17:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.04 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 22:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.01 | +0.62 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 12:49 | +0.16 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:43 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 14:27 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Noel Acciari C | 11:47 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 16:59 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 15:51 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 21:54 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 20:10 | −0.04 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 13:06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 21:26 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 11:17 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:27 | 2 | −0.24 | +0.09 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Carlsson D | 12:57 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 11:20 | −0.52 | +0.05 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 15:50 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | −0.16 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 18:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.16 | +0.63 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.17 | +0.55 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 18:35 | +0.20 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 14:05 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 8:36 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 15:00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 7:47 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:20 | −0.06 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 23:31 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 24:14 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 13:49 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 19:02 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:07 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 9:02 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 17:09 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 18:55 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 16:45 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 19:07 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 57:57 | −1.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.