LAK beat FLA 4–1. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Anze Kopitar scored at 3:27 of the second, moving LAK’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Jonathan Quick saved 3.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:56 | FLA | Matt Kiersted from Jonathan Huberdeau, Sam Reinhart | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 17:05 |  LAK | Olli Maatta from Carl Grundstrom, Trevor Moore | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 3:27 | LAK | Anze Kopitar from Sean Durzi, Alex Iafallo | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 12:58 | LAK | Dustin Brown from Matt Roy | 3–1 | 69% → 86% |
| P3 7:02 | LAK | Arthur Kaliyev from Blake Lizotte | 4–1 | 94% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olli Maatta D | 20:13 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.10 | +0.87 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anze Kopitar C | 18:44 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.04 | +0.83 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.10 | |
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 9:29 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.05 | +0.61 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dustin Brown R | 14:04 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.12 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Wolanin D | 13:50 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Lemieux L | 10:07 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Blake Lizotte C | 9:43 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 15:55 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 23:25 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 12:34 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 21:00 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 12:01 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Kupari C | 11:32 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 20:24 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 18:26 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 19:19 | −0.36 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 18:05 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 23:09 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 60:00 | +3.30 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Kiersted D | 21:11 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.80 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 31:32 | +0.12 | +0.21 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chase Priskie D | 25:29 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Carlsson D | 20:42 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Juolevi D | 12:01 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aleksi Heponiemi C | 15:14 | −0.03 | +0.15 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 9:27 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 20:11 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.37 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 10:48 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 17:18 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 19:11 | −0.26 | +0.27 | −0.54 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 18:01 | −0.27 | +0.10 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 15:27 | −0.32 | +0.10 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 22:08 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.00 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.10 | |
| Grigori Denisenko L | 15:30 | −0.50 | +0.03 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 23:59 | 1 | −1.04 | +0.07 | −1.12 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 57:51 | −1.84 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.