NYR beat ARI 3–2. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kaapo Kakko scored on the power play at 17:42 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 51% to 92%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:46 | ARI | Loui ErikssonSH from Clayton Keller, Ilya Lyubushkin | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 10:40 | NYR | Kaapo Kakko from Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 8:47 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Nick Schmaltz, Anton Stralman | 1–2 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 14:14 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Adam Fox, Chris Kreider | 2–2 | 14% → 49% |
| P3 17:42 | NYR | Kaapo KakkoPP from Chris Kreider, Ryan Strome | 3–2 | 51% → 92% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kakko R | 19:38 | 2 | +1.64 | +0.22 | +1.43 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.03 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Adam Fox D | 22:35 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 17:12 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 14:32 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 15:40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 8:55 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 7:01 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 8:31 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 17:54 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:42 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:01 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 13:30 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 18:46 | 3 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:01 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 18:29 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:48 | −0.26 | +0.03 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Libor Hajek D | 14:28 | −0.38 | −0.36 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Keith Kinkaid G | 60:00 | +0.46 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loui Eriksson L | 13:24 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.12 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 22:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.08 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 17:05 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Stralman D | 19:55 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Dineen D | 15:38 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Ladd L | 10:51 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 17:59 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 15:46 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Dysin Mayo D | 20:19 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 24:37 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 11:23 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 11:09 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 18:03 | −0.12 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.08 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 18:04 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| J.J. Moser D | 18:57 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 3:21 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:51 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 20:02 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 58:50 | −0.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.