CHI beat WSH 5–4 in overtime. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Caleb Jones scored at 1:21 of overtime, moving CHI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Ilya Samsonov allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:36 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from T.J. Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom | 1–0 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 13:55 | CHI | Alex DeBrincatPP from Patrick Kane, Dominik Kubalik | 1–1 | 35% → 54% |
| P2 14:13 | CHI | Philipp KurashevPP from Kirby Dach, Caleb Jones | 1–2 | 54% → 75% |
| P2 14:29 | CHI | MacKenzie Entwistle from Brandon Hagel, Jonathan Toews | 1–3 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 19:18 | WSH | Daniel Sprong from Lars Eller | 2–3 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 11:57 | WSH | Lars Eller from T.J. Oshie, Conor Sheary | 3–3 | 15% → 48% |
| P3 15:00 | CHI | Alex DeBrincatPP from Brandon Hagel, Dylan Strome | 3–4 | 52% → 88% |
| P3 19:57 | WSH | Conor ShearyPP from Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson | 4–4 | 2% → 48% |
| OT 1:21 | CHI | Caleb Jones from Kirby Dach, Patrick Kane | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Sheary L | 19:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.09 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Lars Eller C | 20:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.11 | +0.60 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| John Carlson D | 27:19 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.46 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 21:17 | +0.30 | +0.33 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 14:56 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.04 | +0.43 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 14:34 | +0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 18:09 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 8:10 | +0.08 | +0.30 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| T.J. Oshie R | 20:58 | 2 | +0.07 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 13:50 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 7:48 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 19:46 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 15:06 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 21:51 | 1 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nic Dowd C | 12:52 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 18:14 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.17 | −0.48 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 10:18 | −0.56 | +0.18 | −0.72 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 59:34 | −2.40 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex DeBrincat R | 22:51 | 2 | +1.36 | −0.22 | +1.57 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Caleb Jones D | 14:31 | 1 | 1 | +1.25 | +0.15 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 14:19 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.11 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 8:28 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.00 | +0.57 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:46 | 2 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jonathan Toews C | 17:23 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 13:38 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Stillman D | 11:53 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 24:50 | 2 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 17:15 | 2 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 17:40 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josiah Slavin L | 6:38 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 20:02 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 16:31 | −0.24 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 23:53 | −0.29 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Connolly R | 11:32 | −0.29 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 27:41 | −0.37 | −0.05 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 10:57 | −0.44 | −0.22 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 61:21 | +0.72 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.