CGY beat CHI 5–2. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 1.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alec Regula scored at 12:54 of the second, moving CHI’s win probability from 14% to 31%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:22 | CGY | Dillon Dube from Noah Hanifin, Blake Coleman | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 6:23 | CGY | Johnny Gaudreau from Matthew Tkachuk, Nikita Zadorov | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 7:06 | CHI | Tyler Johnson from Jonathan Toews, Dominik Kubalik | 2–1 | 24% → 37% |
| P1 14:41 | CGY | Blake Coleman from Oliver Kylington | 3–1 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 12:54 | CHI | Alec Regula from Jake McCabe, Alex DeBrincat | 3–2 | 14% → 31% |
| P3 18:28 | CGY | Johnny GaudreauEN from Matthew Tkachuk | 4–2 | 93% → 100% |
| P3 18:53 | CGY | Oliver KylingtonEN from Jacob Markstrom | 5–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Dube C | 14:02 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 20:14 | 2 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.65 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 10:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.02 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 13:34 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 19:43 | +0.14 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kylington D | 18:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:16 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 15:29 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 11:22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Ruzicka C | 9:49 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 14:02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:04 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 13:12 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:36 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.31 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:23 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 15:22 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:56 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:20 | −0.28 | +0.04 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:00 | −0.37 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Regula D | 18:45 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.04 | +0.92 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Johnson C | 15:05 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.06 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Taylor Raddysh R | 10:55 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 27:10 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 1:51 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 16:14 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boris Katchouk L | 12:46 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 22:26 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 14:37 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 16:53 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 17:25 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Reichel L | 9:19 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 15:09 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 20:51 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 16:07 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 22:56 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 22:03 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.28 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Caleb Jones D | 14:01 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 59:27 | −0.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.