COL beat FLA 3–2. COL lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Andre Burakovsky scored at 11:43 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 85%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 19:37 | COL | Andre BurakovskyPP from Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon | 0–1 | 53% → 77% |
| P3 2:03 | COL | Andre Burakovsky from Mikko Rantanen | 0–2 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 7:41 | FLA | Joe ThorntonPP from Carter Verhaeghe, Frank Vatrano | 1–2 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 10:15 | FLA | Brandon Montour from Carter Verhaeghe, Gustav Forsling | 2–2 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 11:43 | COL | Andre Burakovsky from Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen | 2–3 | 52% → 85% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Montour D | 16:35 | 1 | +0.97 | −0.08 | +0.86 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Thornton C | 12:39 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.07 | +0.83 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 22:37 | +0.32 | +0.30 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 23:38 | +0.24 | +0.31 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:04 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Juolevi D | 4:33 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 24:51 | +0.09 | +0.28 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 18:03 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 11:36 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 22:45 | +0.03 | +0.29 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Lucas Carlsson D | 6:21 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 13:55 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:36 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:29 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 11:56 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 15:24 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 12:25 | −0.27 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 19:57 | −0.67 | +0.46 | −1.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 57:41 | −0.56 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Burakovsky L | 18:34 | 3 | +2.48 | +0.08 | +2.41 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 19:06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 3:25 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 3:24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 16:55 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 16:16 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.09 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 19:53 | 3 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 29:14 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 21:01 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Darren Helm C | 9:37 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 23:55 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 20:27 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 24:12 | −0.33 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 10:48 | −0.34 | +0.07 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 17:05 | −0.37 | +0.12 | −0.49 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Maltsev L | 6:44 | −0.39 | +0.09 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 17:29 | −0.51 | −0.45 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 14:56 | −0.68 | −0.57 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 60:00 | +0.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.