TOR beat CHI 5–4. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: David Kampf scored at 18:40 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 50% to 95%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:53 |  CHI | Jonathan Toews from Reese Johnson, Connor Murphy | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 2:54 |  TOR | John TavaresPP from Auston Matthews, William Nylander | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 9:14 | TOR | William Nylander from John Tavares, Timothy Liljegren | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 14:32 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Ondrej Kase, William Nylander | 1–3 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 3:25 | TOR | Pierre Engvall from Kyle Clifford, Alex Steeves | 1–4 | 86% → 94% |
| P2 16:31 | CHI | Connor Murphy from Brandon Hagel | 2–4 | 2% → 9% |
| P3 1:47 | CHI | Dominik Kubalik from Philipp Kurashev, Jake McCabe | 3–4 | 7% → 22% |
| P3 10:42 | CHI | Jake McCabe from Riley Stillman, Ryan Carpenter | 4–4 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 18:40 | TOR | David Kampf from Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie | 4–5 | 50% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCabe D | 18:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.07 | +0.93 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor Murphy D | 23:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.13 | +0.88 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Toews C | 17:05 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.08 | +0.78 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 16:13 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.05 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 18:19 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 14:31 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Josiah Slavin L | 10:34 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hardman L | 6:02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 16:17 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 24:22 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 17:12 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 16:11 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 7:51 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Hagel L | 12:44 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 23:21 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.53 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 23:20 | −0.42 | +0.00 | −0.47 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 13:17 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 19:04 | −0.50 | +0.04 | −0.59 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 58:47 | −2.61 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares C | 16:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.00 | +0.84 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| William Nylander R | 17:20 | 1 | 2 | +0.77 | +0.07 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Pierre Engvall L | 13:26 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.04 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| David Kampf C | 18:22 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.03 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 19:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.12 | +0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Kyle Clifford L | 9:41 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 21:49 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Muzzin D | 24:53 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 20:21 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 23:09 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Wayne Simmonds R | 12:23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Steeves C | 8:10 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:36 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 18:02 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Ritchie L | 11:23 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kristians Rubins D | 9:27 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 14:12 | −0.40 | +0.09 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 19:05 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.12 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 60:00 | −0.89 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.