WSH beat BUF 3–2 in a shootout. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Martin Fehérváry scored at 5:41 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 20% to 48%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:40 | WSH | Lars Eller from Conor Sheary, T.J. Oshie | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:48 |  BUF | Vinnie Hinostroza from Robert Hagg, Jacob Bryson | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 2:09 | BUF | Will Butcher from Rasmus Asplund, Kyle Okposo | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P3 5:41 | WSH | Martin Fehérváry from Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov | 2–2 | 20% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Oshie R | 22:21 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.16 | −0.45 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +1.05 | |
| Lars Eller C | 19:23 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.13 | +0.74 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 19:45 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.12 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 14:33 | +0.50 | +0.14 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.70 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 14:09 | +0.26 | +0.27 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 12:05 | +0.15 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 17:48 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 20:17 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 8:05 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 9:02 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 23:10 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 19:18 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brett Leason R | 7:50 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 26:04 | −0.19 | +0.11 | −0.35 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 25:36 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.15 | −0.40 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 18:31 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 24:26 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.15 | −0.51 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.09 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 12:50 | −0.45 | +0.18 | −0.64 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 64:47 | +0.18 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 11:48 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.04 | +0.62 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 16:59 | +0.65 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.74 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 15:26 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.21 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Hagg D | 17:22 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 17:21 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 26:08 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 13:05 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 21:00 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:22 | −0.11 | +0.15 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 13:26 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:03 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:28 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Brett Murray L | 15:22 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 12:38 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 19:42 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 18:30 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.24 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 18:16 | −0.54 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.30 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:28 | −0.59 | −0.14 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.28 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 65:00 | −0.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.