VAN beat WPG 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (WPG 4.2, VAN 4.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mark Scheifele scored at 11:08 of the second, moving WPG’s win probability from 26% to 47%. Thatcher Demko saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:29 | VAN | Nils Hoglander from Bo Horvat, Quinn Hughes | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:07 | WPG | Blake WheelerPP from Nate Schmidt, Kyle Connor | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 19:40 | VAN | Nils Hoglander from Bo Horvat | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 6:09 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Blake Wheeler | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 7:06 | VAN | Conor Garland from J.T. Miller | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 11:08 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Kyle Connor, Blake Wheeler | 3–3 | 26% → 47% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele C | 25:28 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.02 | +0.58 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.36 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 26:33 | +0.11 | +0.19 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 16:54 | 1 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 |
| Dominic Toninato C | 7:24 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 10:05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 22:54 | 1 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.39 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Nate Schmidt D | 25:15 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 19:39 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:03 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 19:31 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Kristian Vesalainen L | 15:08 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 3:59 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 14:01 | −0.17 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Stastny C | 18:22 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 13:51 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 19:57 | −0.45 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 18:14 | −0.59 | +0.11 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.45 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 19:42 | −0.68 | +0.09 | −0.60 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Comrie G | 65:00 | +1.17 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nils Hoglander L | 13:34 | 2 | +1.37 | +0.23 | +1.31 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Conor Garland R | 16:07 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.10 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 16:54 | +0.69 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | +0.70 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 14:39 | +0.20 | +0.30 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 25:52 | +0.19 | +0.33 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tucker Poolman D | 21:38 | +0.16 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 14:44 | +0.09 | +0.18 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:21 | 2 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.14 | |
| Alex Chiasson R | 8:06 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 13:44 | −0.10 | +0.21 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Juho Lammikko C | 8:11 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 10:53 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 17:07 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 19:22 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 18:54 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 26:34 | 1 | −0.95 | −0.62 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 21:23 | −0.99 | −0.27 | −0.74 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 23:17 | 1 | −1.31 | −0.16 | −0.80 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.17 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 64:56 | +2.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.