NYR beat BUF 2–1. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.6, BUF 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alexis Lafrenière scored at 9:47 of the second, moving NYR’s win probability from 68% to 84%. Alexandar Georgiev saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:48 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadPP from Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 9:47 | NYR | Alexis Lafrenière from Adam Fox, Filip Chytil | 2–0 | 68% → 84% |
| P3 14:37 | BUF | Brett Murray from Mark Pysyk, Kyle Okposo | 2–1 | 2% → 14% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 9:53 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.02 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:26 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.42 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 17:24 | +0.23 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 24:01 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 15:43 | +0.08 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 13:02 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 16:08 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Rooney C | 15:34 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 23:04 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:20 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 18:45 | −0.25 | +0.05 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:08 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:24 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 17:38 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 10:52 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Dryden Hunt L | 13:33 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 20:26 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 9:39 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:00 | +2.28 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Murray L | 14:09 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.01 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 21:02 | +0.13 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 8:21 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 16:29 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 18:05 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 19:40 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 12:14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 21:39 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 15:16 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 18:44 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:54 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 11:00 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 20:30 | −0.24 | +0.08 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 10:59 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.29 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 14:16 | −0.29 | +0.05 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:25 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 18:14 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 19:58 | −0.79 | +0.08 | −0.83 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 58:48 | +0.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.