BOS beat EDM 3–2. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matt Grzelcyk scored at 17:27 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 49% to 92%. Linus Ullmark saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:15 |  BOS | Brad MarchandSH from Patrice Bergeron | 1–0 | 46% → 64% |
| P2 2:02 | BOS | Jake DeBruskPP from Taylor Hall | 2–0 | 67% → 81% |
| P2 18:14 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Tyson Barrie, Connor McDavid | 2–1 | 12% → 28% |
| P3 9:50 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie | 2–2 | 21% → 52% |
| P3 17:27 | BOS | Matt Grzelcyk from Craig Smith, Taylor Hall | 3–2 | 49% → 92% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 15:04 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.13 | +0.81 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 21:46 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.07 | +0.60 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 14:46 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.21 | +0.79 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 24:31 | +0.20 | +0.27 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Moore D | 17:31 | +0.01 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 25:29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Karson Kuhlman C | 9:21 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 19:29 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Craig Smith C | 12:45 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Blidh L | 10:52 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 8:55 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 14:50 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 17:08 | −0.28 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 19:37 | −0.28 | +0.07 | −0.43 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 11:37 | 2 | −0.30 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 15:04 | −0.35 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 16:32 | −0.41 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 14:32 | −0.60 | −0.17 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 60:00 | +1.81 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Draisaitl C | 26:35 | 2 | +1.11 | +0.22 | +1.18 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.03 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 13:17 | +0.21 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:29 | +0.21 | +0.34 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 12:09 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 13:22 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 6:42 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 26:47 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.54 | +0.15 | −0.01 | +0.37 | −0.04 | |
| Darnell Nurse D | 28:48 | +0.01 | +0.21 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 18:04 | −0.01 | +0.10 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 19:26 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 6:35 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 7:26 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Niemelainen D | 13:32 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 6:21 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 19:02 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 18:34 | −0.19 | +0.20 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 21:40 | −0.54 | −0.21 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 12:36 | −0.58 | +0.11 | −0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 57:43 | −0.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.