STL beat DET 6–2. STL also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nathan Walker scored at 6:17 of the first, moving STL’s win probability from 53% to 70%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:17 | STL | Nathan Walker from Brayden Schenn, Dakota Joshua | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 16:47 | STL | Nathan Walker from Niko Mikkola, Ryan O'Reilly | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 4:17 | DET | Robby Fabbri from Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin | 1–2 | 13% → 28% |
| P2 16:01 | STL | Colton Parayko from Dakota Joshua, Niko Mikkola | 1–3 | 76% → 90% |
| P3 9:27 | STL | Nathan Walker from Torey Krug, Marco Scandella | 1–4 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 10:11 | STL | Ivan Barbashev from Torey Krug, Pavel Buchnevich | 1–5 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:27 | DET | Robby Fabbri from Lucas Raymond, Filip Hronek | 2–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 19:54 | STL | Marco ScandellaEN from Robert Bortuzzo | 2–6 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robby Fabbri C | 18:54 | 2 | +1.21 | −0.06 | +1.48 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pius Suter C | 18:55 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 24:32 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:50 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 8:22 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 18:23 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dan Renouf D | 15:21 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 7:06 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 14:37 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 15:31 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 13:52 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 16:04 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 14:42 | −0.14 | +0.11 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 19:39 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 21:59 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 12:32 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 20:07 | −0.47 | +0.02 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:09 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.10 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 40:00 | −0.84 |
| Thomas Greiss G | 16:25 | −1.27 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Walker L | 12:56 | 3 | +2.65 | +0.08 | +2.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 17:32 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.11 | +0.61 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 20:09 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.06 | +0.68 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Perunovich D | 16:13 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 18:02 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 20:16 | 2 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 18:32 | 2 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 17:20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 9:22 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.16 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:17 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.25 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:47 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 20:29 | 1 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Logan Brown C | 14:00 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 17:04 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 20:44 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 16:33 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 20:44 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.05 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 60:00 | +0.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.