STL beat FLA 4–3 in overtime. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Pavel Buchnevich scored at 0:53 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Spencer Knight allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:49 | FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Maxim Mamin, Carter Verhaeghe | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 4:20 | STL | Vladimir Tarasenko from Ivan Barbashev, Pavel Buchnevich | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 5:12 | FLA | Brandon Montour from Carter Verhaeghe, Maxim Mamin | 2–1 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 13:34 | STL | Brayden SchennPP from Vladimir Tarasenko, Jordan Kyrou | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 6:48 | STL | Brandon Saad from Ivan Barbashev, Logan Brown | 2–3 | 53% → 81% |
| P3 14:28 | FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau from Radko Gudas, MacKenzie Weegar | 3–3 | 12% → 49% |
| OT 0:53 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Colton Parayko, Jordan Kyrou | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Montour D | 14:26 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.06 | +0.39 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 18:03 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.23 | +0.30 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 20:01 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.14 | −0.06 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 22:18 | +0.27 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Mamin C | 13:20 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.12 | −0.08 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 17:03 | 2 | +0.19 | +0.13 | −0.14 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 21:17 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.08 | +0.18 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 10:49 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 19:01 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.21 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patric Hornqvist R | 11:11 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Lucas Carlsson D | 10:13 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 16:45 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 12:48 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 12:21 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:01 | −0.12 | +0.14 | −0.07 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 8:37 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 26:32 | −0.30 | +0.11 | −0.28 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 20:35 | −0.56 | +0.16 | −0.25 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 60:53 | −1.42 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 21:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.06 | +0.35 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.10 | +0.24 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden Schenn C | 20:19 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.25 | +0.34 | −0.09 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:09 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.36 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 16:47 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.08 | +0.36 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 20:05 | +0.06 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 20:44 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Brown C | 14:49 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jake Walman D | 6:08 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 10:40 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Scott Perunovich D | 13:48 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 14:49 | −0.13 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:18 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 14:53 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 18:56 | 2 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 25:19 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 17:52 | −0.56 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 54:28 | +1.02 |
| Charlie Lindgren G | 6:25 | +0.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.