NYR beat CHI 6–2. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.6, CHI 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Chris Kreider scored on the power play at 4:59 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 49% to 76%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:01 |  NYR | Jacob Trouba from Artemi Panarin, Ryan Strome | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 1:44 | CHI | Erik Gustafsson unassisted | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 7:09 | CHI | Kirby Dach from Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Strome | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 3:19 | NYR | Artemi PanarinPP from Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 4:59 | NYR | Chris KreiderPP from Adam Fox, Artemi Panarin | 3–2 | 49% → 76% |
| P3 12:10 | NYR | Kevin Rooney from Adam Fox, Ryan Reaves | 4–2 | 83% → 97% |
| P3 16:50 | NYR | Artemi PanarinEN from Jacob Trouba, Mika Zibanejad | 5–2 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 18:41 | NYR | Barclay Goodrow from Ryan Reaves, Kevin Rooney | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Rooney C | 13:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.06 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Jacob Trouba D | 19:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.91 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 15:08 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.06 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 17:54 | 2 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.10 | +0.47 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Chris Kreider L | 16:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.10 | +0.28 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Adam Fox D | 23:06 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Lundkvist D | 13:26 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lindgren D | 21:02 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 14:39 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 11:13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 17:50 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Filip Chytil C | 11:57 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 11:46 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 17:57 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:02 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dryden Hunt L | 13:52 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:01 | 2 | −0.34 | +0.08 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 22:42 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:00 | +0.10 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Gustafsson D | 21:10 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.03 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirby Dach C | 18:38 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.04 | +0.87 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Dominik Kubalik L | 15:45 | +0.15 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 21:55 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Josiah Slavin L | 14:05 | +0.06 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ian Mitchell D | 18:17 | +0.05 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 13:00 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 16:33 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | ||
| Wyatt Kalynuk D | 14:11 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Hagel L | 18:00 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 7:00 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 16:34 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.07 | |
| Seth Jones D | 25:01 | −0.19 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 22:53 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 12:05 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Henrik Borgstrom C | 9:58 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 13:58 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:56 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.09 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 59:40 | −1.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.