CBJ beat SJS 6–4. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jack Roslovic scored at 1:57 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 52% to 78%. Adin Hill allowed 3.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:16 | CBJ | Adam Boqvist from Justin Danforth | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:57 |  SJS | Nick Bonino from Matt Nieto, Andrew Cogliano | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 0:21 | SJS | Erik Karlsson from Alexander Barabanov | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 0:53 | CBJ | Sean Kuraly from Andrew Peeke, Alexandre Texier | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 8:44 | SJS | Brent Burns from Matt Nieto, Timo Meier | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 17:49 | CBJ | Cole Sillinger unassisted | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 1:57 | CBJ | Jack Roslovic from Max Domi, Andrew Peeke | 3–4 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 5:34 | CBJ | Adam Boqvist from Gabriel Carlsson, Jakub Voracek | 3–5 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 10:11 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Jonathan Dahlen, Timo Meier | 4–5 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 18:53 | CBJ | Alexandre TexierEN from Gustav Nyquist, Eric Robinson | 4–6 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns D | 23:52 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.04 | +0.88 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 15:26 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.10 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:01 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.08 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 20:06 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.00 | +0.74 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:34 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 16:45 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 13:56 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Pederson C | 10:01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jasper Weatherby C | 10:59 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 22:30 | −0.06 | +0.07 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 15:01 | 2 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radim Simek D | 13:22 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 16:11 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Dahlen C | 14:52 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.12 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 10:15 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 17:16 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 17:12 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 18:00 | 2 | −0.83 | +0.06 | −0.88 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 58:59 | −3.08 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Boqvist D | 14:12 | 2 | +1.77 | +0.05 | +1.74 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 12:22 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.04 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 18:05 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.04 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 13:09 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.00 | +0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 13:01 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 12:48 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Gabriel Carlsson D | 10:16 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 14:42 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 23:33 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gregory Hofmann C | 12:29 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 25:17 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 17:39 | 1 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrew Peeke D | 23:16 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 15:27 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 17:37 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 15:50 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 23:26 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 16:51 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 60:00 | −0.99 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.