PIT beat VAN 4–1. PIT also won the expected-goals battle 4.1 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jake Guentzel scored on the power play at 17:13 of the second, moving PIT’s win probability from 54% to 77%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 2:19 | PIT | Jake Guentzel from Brian Dumoulin, Kris Letang | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 6:18 | VAN | Vasily Podkolzin from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Brock Boeser | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 17:13 | PIT | Jake GuentzelPP from Sidney Crosby, Jeff Carter | 2–1 | 54% → 77% |
| P2 18:23 | PIT | Jake GuentzelPP from Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang | 3–1 | 78% → 89% |
| P3 11:15 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel | 4–1 | 96% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:26 | 3 | 1 | +2.61 | +0.34 | +2.29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 19:02 | 1 | 2 | +0.96 | +0.35 | +0.48 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 10:18 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 18:58 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.21 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 16:03 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 19:27 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danton Heinen L | 15:26 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 14:19 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 23:23 | −0.09 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 15:34 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 13:56 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 15:01 | −0.13 | +0.13 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 16:06 | −0.13 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 9:53 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 22:46 | 3 | −0.17 | +0.27 | −0.46 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 8:40 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:09 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 20:33 | −0.45 | +0.31 | −0.72 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 60:00 | +0.54 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 12:53 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.04 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 18:46 | +0.31 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 12:01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 11:00 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Dowling C | 6:24 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 14:25 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 16:55 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 23:25 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 11:47 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:42 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Chiasson R | 9:49 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 21:17 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 17:14 | −0.31 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 15:21 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Motte C | 13:41 | −0.41 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 26:04 | −0.51 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tucker Poolman D | 17:08 | −0.52 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 21:32 | −0.53 | −0.37 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 57:59 | +0.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.