DET beat NYI 4–3 in overtime. DET also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Moritz Seider scored at 3:33 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:45 | NYI | Cal ClutterbuckSH from Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Adam Pelech | 1–0 | 46% → 62% |
| P1 5:18 |  DET | Filip Hronek from Adam Erne, Michael Rasmussen | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 7:37 | DET | Sam Gagner from Givani Smith, Carter Rowney | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 10:49 | NYI | Oliver WahlstromPP from Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 13:19 | DET | Givani Smith unassisted | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 12:33 | NYI | Oliver WahlstromPP from Mathew Barzal, Zach Parise | 3–3 | 16% → 49% |
| OT 3:33 | DET | Moritz Seider from Pius Suter, Filip Zadina | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 10:33 | 2 | +1.44 | +0.01 | +1.61 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 12:21 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.03 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andy Greene D | 19:57 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 13:36 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 18:47 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Zdeno Chara D | 16:39 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 7:07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 13:56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 16:42 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 20:32 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:30 | −0.24 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kieffer Bellows L | 13:09 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 15:29 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 19:47 | −0.27 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 22:39 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 24:18 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.29 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 18:39 | −0.49 | −0.18 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 24:16 | 2 | −0.66 | −0.51 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 63:15 | −1.06 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moritz Seider D | 27:19 | 1 | +1.19 | +0.38 | +0.60 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 24:16 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.06 | +0.90 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 11:56 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.12 | +0.76 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Givani Smith R | 7:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.03 | +0.69 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:29 | +0.21 | +0.35 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 18:38 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 16:24 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 21:48 | −0.01 | +0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 8:42 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 11:43 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 21:00 | −0.04 | +0.31 | −0.38 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 10:52 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 18:53 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:18 | −0.17 | +0.10 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 13:19 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 13:40 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 21:58 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 20:45 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.00 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 63:33 | −0.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.