OTT beat CAR 3–2. OTT lost the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 5.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Josh Norris scored at 14:06 of the third, moving OTT’s win probability from 49% to 85%. Anton Forsberg saved 3.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:43 | OTT | Alex Formenton from Tyler Ennis | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P3 9:05 | OTT | Alex Formenton from Tyler Ennis, Artem Zub | 2–0 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 12:02 | CAR | Teuvo TeravainenPP from Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin | 2–1 | 4% → 18% |
| P3 13:47 | CAR | Andrei Svechnikov from Seth Jarvis, Sebastian Aho | 2–2 | 15% → 51% |
| P3 14:06 | OTT | Josh Norris from Drake Batherson, Brady Tkachuk | 3–2 | 49% → 85% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Formenton L | 9:41 | 2 | +1.22 | −0.26 | +1.50 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Norris C | 18:18 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.17 | +0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 19:22 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.21 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zachary Sanford L | 12:44 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mete D | 8:18 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 21:56 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 26:38 | −0.15 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 18:40 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 10:37 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lassi Thomson D | 9:58 | −0.20 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Zub D | 19:54 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 15:05 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 9:31 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Nick Paul L | 16:49 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Thomas Chabot D | 29:03 | −0.36 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Gambrell C | 16:37 | −0.47 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.13 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 10:19 | 2 | −0.54 | −0.33 | −0.25 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:33 | 1 | −0.66 | +0.05 | −0.54 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 60:00 | +3.70 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:09 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.49 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 23:00 | 2 | +0.39 | +0.48 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 12:45 | +0.29 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 4:23 | +0.27 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 20:26 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.20 | +0.13 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Staal C | 18:12 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 20:35 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 29:30 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.19 | −0.28 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:13 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 18:52 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 15:07 | −0.11 | +0.23 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxime Lajoie D | 14:54 | −0.14 | +0.16 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 12:33 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 12:18 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 10:50 | −0.27 | +0.10 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 15:52 | −0.30 | +0.24 | −0.39 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.07 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 20:55 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.45 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 16:27 | −0.53 | −0.16 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 59:02 | −0.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.