DET beat BOS 2–1. DET lost the expected-goals battle 1.3 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Marc Staal scored on the power play at 11:33 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 49% to 82%. Alex Nedeljkovic saved 2.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:03 | DET | Filip Zadina from Pius Suter | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P3 6:20 |  BOS | David PastrnakPP from Taylor Hall, Charlie McAvoy | 1–1 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 11:33 | DET | Marc StaalPP from Vladislav Namestnikov, Gustav Lindstrom | 2–1 | 49% → 82% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Zadina R | 12:23 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.01 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Staal D | 18:13 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.16 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pius Suter C | 16:28 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Carter Rowney C | 9:51 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 16:16 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 17:14 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Adam Erne L | 11:54 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 7:30 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 15:52 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 14:03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 14:11 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:47 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 21:36 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 20:39 | −0.27 | −0.18 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 22:52 | −0.34 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 18:50 | −0.38 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 15:55 | −0.40 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 19:36 | −0.52 | −0.24 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 59:54 | +2.76 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 23:00 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.24 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Charlie McAvoy D | 25:43 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 22:46 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 13:26 | +0.10 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 18:01 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 12:35 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Zboril D | 16:40 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 10:25 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 21:44 | +0.00 | +0.24 | −0.46 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.06 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 9:43 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 12:40 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 16:36 | −0.06 | +0.23 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Karson Kuhlman C | 8:38 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 15:03 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 8:55 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 19:07 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 19:42 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 22:44 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.20 | −0.48 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 58:32 | −0.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.