SEA beat BUF 7–4. SEA lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Carson Soucy scored short-handed at 5:47 of the first, moving SEA’s win probability from 46% to 62%. Dustin Tokarski allowed 3.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:47 | SEA | Carson SoucySH from Yanni Gourde | 1–0 | 46% → 62% |
| P1 14:40 | SEA | Brandon TanevSH unassisted | 2–0 | 64% → 78% |
| P1 19:04 | SEA | Jared McCann from Jamie Oleksiak, Morgan Geekie | 3–0 | 80% → 92% |
| P2 1:53 | BUF | Brett Murray from Kyle Okposo | 3–1 | 7% → 19% |
| P2 7:59 | SEA | Jared McCann from Morgan Geekie, Brandon Tanev | 4–1 | 83% → 95% |
| P2 17:27 | BUF | Jeff SkinnerPP from Tage Thompson, Rasmus Dahlin | 4–2 | 3% → 12% |
| P2 18:09 | SEA | Mason Appleton from Will Borgen, Alexander Wennberg | 5–2 | 88% → 97% |
| P3 0:37 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Victor Olofsson | 5–3 | 2% → 10% |
| P3 13:44 | SEA | Jaden Schwartz from Yanni Gourde, Joonas Donskoi | 6–3 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 18:27 | BUF | Dylan Cozens from Kyle Okposo, Brett Murray | 6–4 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 19:35 | SEA | Mason AppletonEN from Brandon Tanev, Adam Larsson | 7–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCann L | 14:02 | 2 | +1.51 | +0.01 | +1.50 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 18:59 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.06 | +0.85 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Appleton C | 16:50 | 2 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 17:53 | 1 | 2 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.50 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 11:03 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.04 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 17:06 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 12:31 | 2 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:43 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 17:11 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:15 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 20:59 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 19:52 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 7:21 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 25:09 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Donato C | 12:03 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 12:52 | −0.32 | +0.05 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 18:00 | −0.41 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Chris Driedger G | 60:00 | −0.51 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 20:00 | 2 | +1.08 | −0.05 | +1.14 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brett Murray L | 15:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.03 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:48 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.05 | +0.65 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Colin Miller D | 19:21 | +0.25 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 21:14 | +0.06 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 11:02 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Hagg D | 15:30 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 10:48 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 18:19 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henri Jokiharju D | 14:57 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 13:46 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 18:24 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 9:41 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:56 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 19:18 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 15:35 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 13:21 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 19:32 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.05 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Tokarski G | 58:40 | −3.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.