NYR beat NYI 4–1. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 2.2, NYI 1.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Chris Kreider scored on the power play at 0:29 of the second, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 66%. Semyon Varlamov allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:29 |  NYR | Chris KreiderPP from Ryan Strome, Adam Fox | 1–0 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 14:28 | NYR | Kevin Rooney from Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Reaves | 2–0 | 70% → 86% |
| P3 3:52 |  NYI | Andy Andreoff from Otto Koivula, Sebastian Aho | 2–1 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 4:12 | NYR | Kevin Rooney from Ryan Reaves, Patrik Nemeth | 3–1 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 11:02 | NYR | Chris Kreider from Mika Zibanejad, Kaapo Kakko | 4–1 | 96% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Rooney C | 15:14 | 2 | +1.76 | +0.14 | +1.45 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 17:31 | 2 | +1.48 | +0.05 | +1.47 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 18:57 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dryden Hunt L | 11:31 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:46 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 14:11 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| K'Andre Miller D | 19:29 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 17:22 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 21:55 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Nemeth D | 16:53 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Julien Gauthier R | 9:06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 16:39 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 11:13 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 12:56 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 15:49 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.16 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 18:11 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.12 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Adam Fox D | 22:43 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.05 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 18:24 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +1.42 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Andreoff C | 7:22 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.05 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Thomas Hickey D | 21:07 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 15:29 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 20:06 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Grant Hutton D | 17:46 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 10:11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Robin Salo D | 17:45 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul LaDue D | 12:47 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 16:20 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 20:43 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 17:01 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Otto Koivula L | 11:28 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho D | 20:31 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:46 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 12:12 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 21:12 | −0.35 | −0.08 | −0.28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:15 | −0.40 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:22 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.45 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 60:00 | −1.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.