SJS beat CAR 2–1 in overtime. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 1.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Alexander Barabanov scored at 1:42 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:16 |  CAR | Tony DeAngelo from Teuvo Teravainen, Seth Jarvis | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P3 3:54 | SJS | Kevin Labanc from Jasper Weatherby, Mario Ferraro | 1–1 | 25% → 52% |
| OT 1:42 | SJS | Alexander Barabanov from Tomas Hertl, Mario Ferraro | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony DeAngelo D | 22:25 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.76 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 15:55 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 15:19 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 14:04 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 16:53 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:50 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 10:49 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 15:04 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 17:45 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 17:22 | −0.17 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 15:18 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 12:11 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 19:40 | −0.24 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 25:48 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 11:21 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 18:40 | −0.33 | −0.21 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 16:56 | −0.43 | −0.23 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 21:28 | −0.66 | −0.47 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 61:42 | +0.28 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Labanc R | 15:37 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.01 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 13:46 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.04 | +0.64 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 24:20 | +0.39 | +0.40 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 21:07 | +0.33 | +0.37 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:55 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 11:19 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Reedy C | 10:56 | +0.13 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 18:39 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Brent Burns D | 23:50 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radim Simek D | 15:25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jasper Weatherby C | 14:56 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 15:45 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 19:13 | −0.08 | +0.19 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 15:53 | −0.08 | +0.15 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 13:41 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 15:30 | −0.14 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 17:09 | −0.20 | +0.23 | −0.44 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 13:06 | −0.25 | +0.13 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 61:23 | +0.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.