CHI beat VAN 1–0. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandon Hagel scored at 4:12 of the third, moving CHI’s win probability from 48% to 75%. Marc-Andre Fleury saved 5.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 4:12 | CHI | Brandon Hagel from Erik Gustafsson, Dylan Strome | 1–0 | 48% → 75% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Hagel L | 14:37 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.09 | +0.34 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 19:02 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jujhar Khaira L | 13:41 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Mike Hardman L | 8:56 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Stillman D | 2:33 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 13:38 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Henrik Borgstrom C | 10:21 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 20:52 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 24:25 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 20:39 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 13:50 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 14:53 | −0.25 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 18:54 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 6:25 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 24:58 | −0.31 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 20:38 | −0.33 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 23:30 | −0.34 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 20:11 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 59:57 | +5.32 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 17:45 | +0.09 | +0.26 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Chiasson R | 8:18 | +0.06 | +0.19 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 14:28 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Tucker Poolman D | 18:01 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 24:19 | −0.07 | +0.15 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juho Lammikko C | 10:05 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 13:35 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:05 | −0.12 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 13:59 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 14:08 | −0.14 | +0.19 | −0.21 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 11:02 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 19:25 | −0.15 | +0.23 | −0.29 | −0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 20:18 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 21:52 | −0.16 | +0.15 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 16:20 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 20:27 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Motte C | 11:18 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 19:13 | −0.40 | +0.12 | −0.35 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 58:22 | +1.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.