NYR beat BUF 5–4. NYR also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 1.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan Lindgren scored at 19:59 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 98%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 2.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:53 | BUF | Rasmus AsplundPP from Zemgus Girgensons, Kyle Okposo | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P1 19:37 | NYR | Chris KreiderPP from Artemi Panarin, Adam Fox | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 2:26 | BUF | Vinnie Hinostroza unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 8:03 | NYR | Jacob TroubaPP from Artemi Panarin, Filip Chytil | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 12:07 | NYR | Kaapo Kakko from Ryan Strome, Artemi Panarin | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 12:57 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Rasmus Dahlin, Mark Pysyk | 3–3 | 25% → 47% |
| P2 13:12 | BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Victor Olofsson, Tage Thompson | 4–3 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 13:29 | NYR | K'Andre Miller from Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Reaves | 4–4 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 19:59 | NYR | Ryan Lindgren from Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox | 4–5 | 52% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 11:42 | 1 | +0.93 | −0.01 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 26:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.05 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Tage Thompson C | 17:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.23 | +0.82 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Rasmus Asplund C | 17:12 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.39 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 16:15 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.05 | |
| Drake Caggiula L | 10:57 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Bjork L | 14:21 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 16:20 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 11:48 | −0.26 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 16:45 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 21:43 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 18:52 | −0.35 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 14:06 | −0.36 | −0.34 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 17:36 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 16:59 | −0.45 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 17:55 | −0.49 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 14:16 | −0.58 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Hagg D | 20:05 | −0.81 | −0.79 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 58:59 | −0.84 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K'Andre Miller D | 20:28 | 1 | +1.32 | +0.44 | +0.93 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 23:31 | 1 | +1.15 | +0.36 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 23:09 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.45 | +0.51 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 15:30 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.32 | +0.56 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 25:45 | 2 | +0.52 | +0.54 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kaapo Kakko R | 18:00 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.13 | +0.57 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 13:39 | +0.27 | +0.50 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Filip Chytil C | 15:13 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.61 | −0.46 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 15:14 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 14:56 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 18:03 | 3 | +0.04 | +0.36 | −0.36 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 16:41 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Dryden Hunt L | 10:44 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Rooney C | 14:17 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 11:12 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jarred Tinordi D | 11:45 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 14:30 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.22 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Julien Gauthier R | 13:31 | −0.67 | +0.30 | −0.95 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 20:00 | +0.27 |
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 39:10 | −2.68 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.