VGK beat DET 5–2. VGK lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nicolas Hague scored at 3:31 of the second, moving VGK’s win probability from 53% to 72%. Thomas Greiss allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:31 | VGK | Nicolas Hague from Evgenii Dadonov, Alex Pietrangelo | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 5:56 | VGK | Zach Whitecloud from Mark Stone, Brett Howden | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 10:19 | DET | Givani Smith from Dylan Larkin, Robby Fabbri | 1–2 | 12% → 26% |
| P2 12:32 | VGK | Zach Whitecloud from Nicolas Roy | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 19:06 | VGK | Paul Cotter from Keegan Kolesar | 1–4 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 5:19 | VGK | Reilly Smith from Mattias Janmark, Jake Leschyshyn | 1–5 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 18:34 | DET | Joe Veleno from Sam Gagner | 2–5 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Givani Smith R | 11:54 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.16 | +0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 14:59 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.01 | +0.56 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jordan Oesterle D | 18:54 | +0.24 | +0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 19:37 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 22:06 | +0.05 | +0.20 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 10:37 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 20:44 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 16:36 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 18:59 | −0.06 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 14:24 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:07 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 16:44 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 17:19 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 16:23 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 19:04 | −0.22 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 12:49 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 15:52 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 15:58 | 1 | −0.69 | +0.06 | −0.76 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 20:00 | +0.06 |
| Thomas Greiss G | 40:00 | −1.92 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Whitecloud D | 20:48 | 2 | +1.80 | +0.06 | +1.74 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 16:19 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.02 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 21:45 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.16 | +0.69 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 10:48 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.02 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 17:53 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 16:42 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 17:41 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:28 | −0.13 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 22:11 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Rondbjerg R | 13:29 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 15:49 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 15:22 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 16:40 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Leschyshyn C | 14:39 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Sven Baertschi L | 13:54 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:13 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Howden C | 11:15 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 14:56 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 60:00 | +1.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.