EDM beat WPG 2–1 in a shootout. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Connor McDavid scored at 14:25 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 14% to 51%. Stuart Skinner saved 4.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 13:57 | WPG | Nikolaj Ehlers from Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor | 1–0 | 49% → 85% |
| P3 14:25 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Cody Ceci, Duncan Keith | 1–1 | 14% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 21:00 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.36 | +0.17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 25:08 | +0.35 | +0.21 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 14:38 | +0.33 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.07 | −0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 13:38 | +0.26 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:11 | +0.11 | +0.19 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 23:38 | +0.09 | +0.20 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 23:32 | +0.04 | +0.26 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 14:36 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 19:55 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Toninato C | 5:54 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kristian Vesalainen L | 3:58 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Svechnikov L | 12:55 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Riley Nash C | 8:24 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 23:01 | −0.13 | +0.24 | −0.32 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 11:50 | −0.43 | +0.11 | −0.53 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:07 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.05 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.36 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 21:12 | −0.94 | +0.07 | −1.07 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 24:17 | 1 | −1.05 | +0.44 | −0.96 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 65:00 | +0.63 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 22:17 | 1 | +1.61 | −0.02 | +0.53 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.83 | |
| Kyle Turris C | 5:33 | +0.20 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.31 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 24:19 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.27 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 8:22 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 15:48 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 26:49 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 17:59 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 10:57 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 12:16 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Slater Koekkoek D | 3:29 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 13:05 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 22:05 | −0.25 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Benson L | 4:26 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 31:21 | −0.43 | −0.31 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 18:51 | −0.44 | −0.56 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 23:03 | −0.51 | −0.21 | −0.33 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 21:40 | −0.61 | −0.21 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 25:51 | −0.83 | −0.34 | −0.33 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 64:42 | +4.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.