ARI beat STL 3–2. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Barrett Hayton scored on the power play at 13:52 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 50% to 85%. Scott Wedgewood saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:37 | ARI | Kyle CapobiancoPP from Lawson Crouse, Alex Galchenyuk | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 17:57 |  STL | Jordan Kyrou from Ryan O'Reilly, Pavel Buchnevich | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 11:35 | ARI | Barrett Hayton unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 14:58 | STL | Torey Krug from Ryan O'Reilly | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 13:52 | ARI | Barrett HaytonPP from Shayne Gostisbehere, Phil Kessel | 3–2 | 50% → 85% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barrett Hayton C | 17:54 | 2 | +1.45 | −0.07 | +1.53 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Capobianco D | 14:40 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.06 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Dineen D | 14:45 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Boyd C | 17:50 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 17:33 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hudson Fasching R | 5:44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Jenik C | 5:56 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 12:44 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 20:36 | −0.09 | −0.15 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 7:13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 22:21 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 23:25 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 24:47 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dysin Mayo D | 20:08 | −0.27 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 15:52 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jay Beagle C | 17:33 | −0.35 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 20:15 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.08 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Antoine Roussel L | 12:44 | −0.55 | −0.19 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:00 | +1.01 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Kyrou R | 19:03 | 1 | +1.16 | +0.29 | +0.85 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 21:48 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.23 | +0.67 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 17:15 | +0.18 | +0.26 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 9:45 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 12:39 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 18:50 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Scott Perunovich D | 18:26 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 9:17 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 18:55 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.24 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 15:39 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 23:17 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 12:04 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Neal L | 12:49 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 22:25 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 13:39 | −0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:18 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.13 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 16:10 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:16 | −0.44 | +0.09 | −0.52 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 57:55 | −0.99 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.