BUF beat PIT 2–1. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Colin Miller scored at 0:28 of the second, moving BUF’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Dustin Tokarski saved 3.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:28 | BUF | Colin Miller from Drake Caggiula, Dylan Cozens | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 8:54 | BUF | Kyle Okposo from Zemgus Girgensons, Rasmus Dahlin | 2–0 | 68% → 84% |
| P3 5:59 |  PIT | Jake GuentzelPP from Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby | 2–1 | 7% → 24% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Miller D | 21:31 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.40 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 17:41 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.19 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Robert Hagg D | 16:51 | +0.13 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 14:33 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.03 | ||
| John Hayden C | 10:16 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Caggiula L | 13:45 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Will Butcher D | 12:56 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 18:54 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 17:53 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 22:56 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arttu Ruotsalainen C | 14:47 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 14:57 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 12:34 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 11:47 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 12:23 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 18:30 | −0.51 | −0.30 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 22:49 | −0.55 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:56 | −0.68 | −0.30 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Tokarski G | 60:00 | +3.04 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel C | 16:18 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.30 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 15:12 | +0.15 | +0.39 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 14:36 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 15:56 | +0.10 | +0.38 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| John Marino D | 21:11 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 12:52 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 22:10 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:53 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.15 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 20:32 | −0.03 | +0.36 | −0.41 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Dominik Simon C | 9:32 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 26:55 | −0.14 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 12:20 | −0.15 | +0.08 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Aston-Reese C | 9:52 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:31 | −0.17 | +0.11 | −0.29 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 14:56 | −0.19 | +0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 13:54 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 16:26 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:37 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 58:41 | −0.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.