CBJ beat DET 5–3. CBJ also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Zach Werenski scored at 18:41 of the third, moving CBJ’s win probability from 50% to 95%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:45 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Lucas Raymond | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 4:23 | DET | Michael Rasmussen from Vladislav Namestnikov, Filip Hronek | 2–0 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 13:07 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Gustav Nyquist, Andrew Peeke | 2–1 | 14% → 31% |
| P2 14:55 | CBJ | Adam Boqvist from Egor Chinakhov, Gavin Bayreuther | 2–2 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 13:31 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin | 3–2 | 49% → 84% |
| P3 15:42 | CBJ | Egor Chinakhov from Jakub Voracek, Cole Sillinger | 3–3 | 12% → 51% |
| P3 18:41 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Gustav Nyquist | 3–4 | 50% → 95% |
| P3 19:57 | CBJ | Alexandre TexierEN from Eric Robinson, Sean Kuraly | 3–5 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Rasmussen C | 15:39 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.06 | +0.91 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 17:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.78 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Lucas Raymond L | 18:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.02 | +0.47 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Moritz Seider D | 22:41 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 17:39 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 13:20 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 16:22 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 10:02 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:57 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 12:32 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 16:35 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 21:23 | −0.18 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 14:13 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 10:47 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 22:05 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danny DeKeyser D | 21:00 | −0.47 | +0.05 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 12:20 | −0.52 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 14:50 | −0.55 | −0.10 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 58:56 | −0.60 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Werenski D | 28:11 | 1 | +1.20 | +0.23 | +0.77 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 16:32 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.05 | +0.62 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 13:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.07 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Boone Jenner C | 20:33 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.28 | +0.31 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 16:31 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.28 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Bean D | 20:37 | +0.09 | +0.02 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gregory Hofmann C | 10:52 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 13:48 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 9:18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 14:52 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 19:01 | 2 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 7:23 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 15:15 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 16:38 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 15:39 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 19:38 | −0.15 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 21:35 | −0.20 | +0.25 | −0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 16:33 | 1 | −0.71 | +0.15 | −0.83 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 60:00 | −0.58 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.