VGK beat VAN 7–4. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 4.7 to 4.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jonathan Marchessault scored on the power play at 8:24 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 53% to 82%. Thatcher Demko allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:09 |  VAN | J.T. Miller from Nils Hoglander | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 5:56 | VAN | Tanner Pearson from Conor Garland, Brad Hunt | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 19:46 |  VGK | Evgenii DadonovPP from Chandler Stephenson, Shea Theodore | 2–1 | 23% → 35% |
| P2 5:50 | VGK | Reilly Smith from Jake Leschyshyn, Alex Pietrangelo | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 10:51 | VGK | Brayden McNabb from Shea Theodore | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 17:15 | VAN | Nils Hoglander unassisted | 3–3 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 2:20 | VGK | Jake Leschyshyn from Evgenii Dadonov, Keegan Kolesar | 3–4 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 3:12 | VAN | Nils Hoglander from Tyler Myers, Quinn Hughes | 4–4 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 8:24 | VGK | Jonathan MarchessaultPP from Alex Pietrangelo, Dylan Coghlan | 4–5 | 53% → 82% |
| P3 14:04 | VGK | Evgenii Dadonov from Mark Stone | 4–6 | 87% → 98% |
| P3 15:27 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Reilly Smith, Chandler Stephenson | 4–7 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nils Hoglander L | 10:33 | 2 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.25 | +0.98 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| J.T. Miller C | 17:04 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.02 | +0.69 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 13:58 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.03 | +0.67 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 23:30 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.23 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 23:44 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Chiasson R | 8:46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 14:56 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 14:43 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 19:58 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 18:10 | −0.16 | −0.21 | −0.16 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brad Hunt D | 13:08 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juho Lammikko C | 13:21 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 19:34 | −0.25 | +0.14 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:30 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Madison Bowey D | 14:35 | −0.32 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 10:50 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 12:20 | −0.60 | −0.07 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 18:56 | −0.62 | −0.12 | −0.68 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 60:00 | −2.79 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 15:44 | 2 | +1.09 | +0.08 | +1.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:50 | 1 | +1.03 | −0.06 | +0.90 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 19:04 | 2 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.16 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Reilly Smith R | 17:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.07 | +0.51 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Jake Leschyshyn C | 12:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.06 | +0.67 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 26:05 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.15 | −0.11 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 18:38 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Shea Theodore D | 27:16 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 10:44 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 9:28 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 20:45 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 8:52 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 18:07 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 10:39 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 8:37 | −0.24 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 18:18 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.07 | |
| Jonas Rondbjerg R | 8:52 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 18:15 | 1 | −0.73 | +0.10 | −0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 59:33 | +0.02 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.