CAR beat STL 3–2. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brendan Smith scored at 17:03 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 51% to 92%. Alex Lyon saved 1.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:15 |  CAR | Brady Skjei from Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 3:44 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Tony DeAngelo, Andrei Svechnikov | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 12:30 | STL | Pavel BuchnevichPP from Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou | 1–2 | 11% → 26% |
| P3 0:48 | STL | Vladimir Tarasenko from Ivan Barbashev, Robert Thomas | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 17:03 | CAR | Brendan Smith from Tony DeAngelo, Jordan Martinook | 2–3 | 51% → 92% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 17:56 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.08 | +0.46 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 20:36 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.17 | +0.28 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 23:51 | +0.33 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 21:34 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.27 | −0.26 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:01 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 24:36 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dakota Joshua C | 7:01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 16:05 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Calle Rosen D | 17:00 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 19:59 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| David Perron L | 17:12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 9:44 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 14:40 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 14:37 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 14:11 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 17:53 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.24 | −0.57 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 15:33 | −0.40 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| James Neal L | 12:28 | −0.54 | +0.25 | −0.77 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 57:09 | −1.00 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Smith D | 13:08 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.01 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 21:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.13 | +0.49 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.06 |
| Brady Skjei D | 25:06 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.26 | +0.71 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:43 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 20:34 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Leivo L | 7:01 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 9:51 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:36 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 19:01 | 2 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 16:53 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 11:27 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 11:46 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Derek Stepan C | 9:52 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 15:50 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 15:38 | −0.26 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ethan Bear D | 16:42 | −0.36 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 19:01 | 2 | −0.53 | +0.08 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Lyon G | 59:56 | +1.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.