WSH beat CBJ 4–3. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Conor Sheary scored at 18:38 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Joonas Korpisalo allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:33 |  CBJ | Sean Kuraly from Alexandre Texier, Eric Robinson | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:19 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 0:24 | WSH | Garnet Hathaway from Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Lars Eller | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 7:23 | WSH | Garnet Hathaway from Lars Eller, Alex Ovechkin | 3–1 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 8:11 | CBJ | Sean Kuraly from Jakub Voracek | 3–2 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 8:33 | CBJ | Gustav Nyquist from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Boone Jenner | 3–3 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 18:38 | WSH | Conor Sheary from Dmitry Orlov, Nick Jensen | 4–3 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garnet Hathaway R | 17:17 | 2 | +1.50 | −0.05 | +1.53 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 13:38 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.11 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 21:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.08 | +0.60 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Carl Hagelin L | 12:38 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 19:40 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 19:16 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 12:46 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 13:03 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Leason R | 6:38 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 8:48 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 11:37 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 20:11 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 20:35 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 23:15 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 16:31 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 19:43 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lars Eller C | 16:16 | 2 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 22:14 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.07 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 60:00 | −0.19 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Kuraly C | 16:03 | 2 | +1.75 | +0.19 | +1.56 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 17:41 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.16 | +0.68 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 14:28 | +0.16 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 21:31 | +0.15 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Carlsson D | 11:48 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gregory Hofmann C | 12:00 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 15:00 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.21 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Voracek R | 16:02 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 11:07 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 20:54 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 15:31 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 10:52 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 13:02 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 21:26 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 18:02 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.27 | −0.51 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 19:36 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 18:46 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 25:17 | −0.44 | −0.13 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 58:54 | −2.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.