VGK beat MIN 3–2. Expected goals were close to even (MIN 2.8, VGK 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Paul Cotter scored at 6:08 of the first, moving VGK’s win probability from 53% to 69%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:08 | VGK | Paul Cotter from Nicolas Hague, Jonas Rondbjerg | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 16:41 | VGK | Jonas Rondbjerg from Brett Howden, Brayden McNabb | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 19:53 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Reilly Smith | 0–3 | 92% → 98% |
| P3 1:20 | MIN | Jared Spurgeon from Kirill Kaprizov, Frederick Gaudreau | 1–3 | 1% → 8% |
| P3 13:35 | MIN | Ryan Hartman from Jon Merrill, Dmitry Kulikov | 2–3 | 2% → 13% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Spurgeon D | 22:26 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.05 | +0.35 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 22:59 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 16:37 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 15:09 | 1 | +0.18 | −0.13 | +0.34 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 8:49 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 16:18 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 19:22 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 11:45 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 10:59 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 10:04 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 7:16 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 20:46 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 19:51 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 23:03 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 16:41 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 18:42 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 18:44 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.21 | −0.06 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 19:19 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.32 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 57:10 | +0.44 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonas Rondbjerg R | 7:57 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.05 | +0.42 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brayden McNabb D | 24:43 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 7:28 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.05 | +0.43 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 7:57 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.25 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 17:40 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.18 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:09 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.36 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 3:39 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 22:19 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Leschyshyn C | 12:27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 26:58 | −0.03 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Coghlan D | 17:11 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 18:49 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 13:51 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 16:43 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:07 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Michael Amadio R | 10:58 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 26:26 | −0.26 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 16:35 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 60:00 | +0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.