LAK beat MTL 3–2 in overtime. LAK lost the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adrian Kempe scored at 3:39 of overtime, moving LAK’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Cal Petersen saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:03 |  MTL | Ben Chiarot from Artturi Lehkonen | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 4:56 | LAK | Brendan Lemieux from Tobias Bjornfot, Blake Lizotte | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 0:06 | LAK | Alex Iafallo unassisted | 2–1 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 13:22 | MTL | Jake Evans from Artturi Lehkonen, Brett Kulak | 2–2 | 16% → 51% |
| OT 3:39 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Andreas Athanasiou, Kale Clague | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Lemieux L | 9:41 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.02 | +0.44 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 18:35 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 20:26 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Lizotte C | 12:00 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kale Clague D | 18:08 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 19:41 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.26 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 23:20 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 19:44 | +0.01 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Arthur Kaliyev R | 11:37 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 10:37 | −0.16 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Grundstrom R | 8:09 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 18:42 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 12:18 | −0.20 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 19:45 | −0.20 | +0.19 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 20:08 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Kupari C | 10:54 | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 23:54 | −0.45 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 25:23 | −0.48 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Petersen G | 63:34 | +2.45 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 14:25 | 2 | +0.67 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.38 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 19:11 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.31 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Alex Belzile R | 5:30 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 16:35 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 24:54 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.22 | +0.13 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Wideman D | 15:58 | +0.02 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 20:53 | +0.00 | +0.47 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Savard D | 20:19 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cedric Paquette C | 3:46 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 19:59 | −0.03 | +0.43 | −0.31 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 15:41 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 19:16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 23:10 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:41 | −0.19 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 20:34 | −0.21 | +0.27 | −0.30 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 23:06 | −0.33 | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.08 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 5:28 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 16:31 | −0.52 | −0.46 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 63:39 | −1.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.