MIN beat NYI 5–2. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 1.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brandon Duhaime scored at 9:18 of the third, moving MIN’s win probability from 52% to 82%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:41 | NYI | Anders Lee from Zdeno Chara, Mathew Barzal | 1–0 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 9:59 |  MIN | Nick Bjugstad from Brandon Duhaime | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 12:04 | NYI | Anders Lee from Mathew Barzal | 2–1 | 47% → 69% |
| P3 7:17 | MIN | Ryan Hartman from Dmitry Kulikov, Nico Sturm | 2–2 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 9:18 | MIN | Brandon Duhaime from Ryan Hartman, Mathew Dumba | 2–3 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 18:13 | MIN | Jonas BrodinEN unassisted | 2–4 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:11 | MIN | Mathew DumbaEN unassisted | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee C | 16:00 | 2 | +0.94 | −0.29 | +1.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 12:23 | +0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 17:46 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:26 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | ||
| Andy Greene D | 17:07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 13:40 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 17:19 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 15:51 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 21:56 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 12:03 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 23:06 | −0.16 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 15:55 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 18:25 | −0.22 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 11:43 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 20:13 | −0.32 | −0.31 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 17:25 | −0.46 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:24 | 2 | −0.48 | −0.28 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 14:39 | −0.48 | −0.31 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 58:39 | +0.10 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Hartman R | 16:44 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.20 | +0.64 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 15:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.27 | +0.46 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 7:14 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.13 | +0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:54 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.18 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 15:05 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.35 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 17:27 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 22:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Goligoski D | 17:09 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 20:34 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.37 | −0.05 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 17:50 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 8:12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rem Pitlick C | 5:50 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 20:42 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jon Merrill D | 17:26 | −0.13 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 18:25 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 16:24 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 20:12 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:48 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.33 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 59:36 | −0.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.