ARI beat SEA 5–4. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 1.3 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Lawson Crouse scored at 18:55 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 50% to 96%. Philipp Grubauer allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:15 | SEA | Jordan Eberle from Alexander Wennberg | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 0:59 | SEA | Yanni Gourde from Brandon Tanev, Jamie Oleksiak | 2–0 | 62% → 74% |
| P1 1:33 | ARI | Antoine Roussel from Shayne Gostisbehere | 2–1 | 26% → 38% |
| P1 11:04 | SEA | Nathan Bastian unassisted | 3–1 | 64% → 77% |
| P2 3:12 | ARI | Travis Boyd from Christian Fischer, Shayne Gostisbehere | 3–2 | 19% → 34% |
| P3 0:46 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Johan Larsson, Jakob Chychrun | 3–3 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 13:34 | ARI | Phil KesselPP from Clayton Keller, Shayne Gostisbehere | 3–4 | 53% → 87% |
| P3 18:42 | SEA | Mark GiordanoPP unassisted | 4–4 | 5% → 50% |
| P3 18:55 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Johan Larsson | 4–5 | 50% → 96% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Giordano D | 22:47 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.15 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:40 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 13:21 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.03 | +0.76 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:20 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.18 | +0.09 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:24 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.19 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 13:50 | +0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 14:30 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 20:25 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Haydn Fleury D | 19:37 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 18:22 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 3:39 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max McCormick L | 11:54 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 20:46 | −0.09 | +0.20 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 20:58 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 13:10 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 21:07 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 15:44 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 10:41 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 58:50 | −3.27 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:11 | 2 | +1.42 | +0.03 | +1.58 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Antoine Roussel L | 12:17 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.03 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Boyd C | 12:28 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.03 | +0.82 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 15:08 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.03 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Dineen D | 15:36 | +0.17 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Barrett Hayton C | 12:09 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Dysin Mayo D | 21:51 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 18:44 | 3 | −0.00 | +0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 19:16 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 13:45 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 13:58 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Johan Larsson L | 17:16 | 2 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 13:05 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 16:44 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Anton Stralman D | 22:24 | −0.23 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 22:09 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.23 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 16:58 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.09 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ben McCartney L | 13:04 | −0.39 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 59:01 | +0.71 |
| Karel Vejmelka G | 0:59 | −1.74 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.