DET beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Moritz Seider scored at 2:45 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:16 |  DET | Pius Suter from Lucas Raymond, Tyler Bertuzzi | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 11:32 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Asplund | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 12:36 | BUF | Rasmus DahlinPP from Will Butcher, Rasmus Asplund | 1–2 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 6:08 | BUF | Arttu Ruotsalainen from Colin Miller, John Hayden | 1–3 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 13:24 | DET | Tyler Bertuzzi from Danny DeKeyser, Lucas Raymond | 2–3 | 2% → 14% |
| P3 14:54 | DET | Tyler Bertuzzi from Pius Suter, Lucas Raymond | 3–3 | 12% → 49% |
| OT 2:45 | DET | Moritz Seider from Tyler Bertuzzi | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 20:57 | 2 | 2 | +2.02 | +0.50 | +1.51 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Moritz Seider D | 21:50 | 1 | +1.06 | +0.24 | +0.82 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pius Suter C | 19:22 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.40 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Danny DeKeyser D | 18:17 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 24:38 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 10:35 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 15:57 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 15:54 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 25:06 | −0.05 | +0.19 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 15:03 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 13:16 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:54 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 13:45 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Gagner C | 14:39 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 8:14 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 15:55 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:57 | 3 | −0.43 | +0.47 | −1.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 17:24 | −0.46 | −0.00 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 62:45 | −0.30 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson C | 16:01 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.03 | +0.58 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Arttu Ruotsalainen C | 12:12 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 21:10 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.24 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Hagg D | 20:09 | +0.27 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 18:53 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 11:28 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 17:07 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 17:07 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 17:56 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 12:39 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 22:03 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:44 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 18:43 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 22:34 | −0.25 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 16:24 | 2 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Drake Caggiula L | 13:09 | −0.39 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 15:10 | −0.59 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 15:18 | −1.03 | −0.50 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Tokarski G | 62:45 | −0.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.