SEA beat BUF 5–2. SEA also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 1.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jordan Eberle scored at 1:50 of the third, moving SEA’s win probability from 52% to 78%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:42 | SEA | Morgan Geekie from Alexander Wennberg, Vince Dunn | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 6:27 | BUF | Tage Thompson from Rasmus Asplund, Rasmus Dahlin | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 17:59 | BUF | Kyle OkposoPP from Jacob Bryson, Dylan Cozens | 2–1 | 48% → 72% |
| P2 18:25 | SEA | Jordan Eberle from Jaden Schwartz | 2–2 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 1:50 | SEA | Jordan Eberle from Alexander Wennberg, Jeremy Lauzon | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 8:06 | SEA | Jordan Eberle from Jaden Schwartz | 2–4 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 18:43 | SEA | Jaden SchwartzEN from Jamie Oleksiak | 2–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson C | 19:21 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.22 | +0.83 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Okposo R | 14:42 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.04 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 7:43 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 20:12 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Hagg D | 14:29 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Caggiula L | 20:09 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arttu Ruotsalainen C | 6:43 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:12 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 22:24 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 15:59 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 20:11 | −0.13 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 15:09 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Hayden C | 4:49 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 22:25 | −0.24 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 18:23 | −0.25 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 19:19 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 24:52 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.31 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 9:25 | −0.40 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Tokarski G | 58:33 | −0.57 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Eberle R | 15:04 | 3 | +2.46 | +0.10 | +2.35 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Morgan Geekie C | 13:57 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.01 | +0.71 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 24:40 | +0.30 | +0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 19:42 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.26 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 17:23 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.19 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Haydn Fleury D | 15:48 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 19:37 | 1 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:42 | 2 | +0.06 | +0.13 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Yanni Gourde C | 21:19 | +0.01 | +0.20 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 10:38 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 18:00 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 12:18 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 16:43 | −0.12 | +0.12 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Max McCormick L | 5:27 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 8:09 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 16:39 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joonas Donskoi R | 18:57 | −0.40 | +0.03 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 16:08 | −0.47 | +0.19 | −0.65 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 60:00 | −0.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.