DAL beat CGY 4–3 in overtime. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jamie Benn scored at 2:59 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jacob Markstrom allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:09 | DAL | Denis GurianovPP from Miro Heiskanen, Ryan Suter | 1–0 | 48% → 64% |
| P2 15:13 | CGY | Milan Lucic from Nikita Zadorov, Erik Gudbranson | 1–1 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 18:41 | CGY | Matthew TkachukPP from Elias Lindholm, Rasmus Andersson | 1–2 | 58% → 77% |
| P2 19:54 | DAL | Blake Comeau from Michael Raffl, Miro Heiskanen | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 1:34 | DAL | Tyler Seguin from Alexander Radulov, Miro Heiskanen | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 16:03 | CGY | Nikita ZadorovPP from Oliver Kylington, Jacob Markstrom | 3–3 | 11% → 51% |
| OT 2:59 | DAL | Jamie Benn from Joe Pavelski, John Klingberg | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Comeau L | 14:09 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.05 | +0.88 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 16:10 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.21 | +0.76 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Denis Gurianov R | 14:20 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.08 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 16:19 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.06 | +0.71 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 14:53 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 21:19 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Klingberg D | 20:50 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Raffl L | 14:43 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:34 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 16:07 | −0.05 | +0.08 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 16:57 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 15:24 | −0.08 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 15:59 | −0.11 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 20:22 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 14:41 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 25:22 | 3 | −0.25 | +0.08 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 16:32 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 15:04 | 1 | −0.70 | −0.24 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Khudobin G | 62:59 | +0.15 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Zadorov D | 14:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.05 | +0.87 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Milan Lucic L | 11:36 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.13 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kylington D | 18:12 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:03 | +0.35 | +0.09 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:33 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.04 | +0.58 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Pitlick C | 12:06 | +0.18 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 21:34 | +0.14 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 17:19 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Richardson R | 9:00 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 24:09 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 12:03 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:11 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.39 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 15:49 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:45 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:37 | −0.34 | −0.24 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 13:23 | −0.36 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:41 | −0.39 | +0.10 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 23:27 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.20 | −0.68 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 62:37 | −1.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.