FLA beat WSH 5–4 in overtime. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Eetu Luostarinen scored at 1:55 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Spencer Knight allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:07 |  FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Anthony Duclair, Carter Verhaeghe | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:04 | FLA | Aaron Ekblad unassisted | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P2 0:43 | WSH | Daniel Sprong from Anthony Mantha | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 7:16 | FLA | Brandon Montour from Gustav Forsling, Mason Marchment | 1–3 | 73% → 88% |
| P2 15:32 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovPP from Patric Hornqvist, Jonathan Huberdeau | 1–4 | 91% → 97% |
| P2 18:11 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Lars Eller | 2–4 | 2% → 9% |
| P2 19:43 | WSH | Tom Wilson from John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin | 3–4 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 6:56 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Alex Ovechkin, Brett Leason | 4–4 | 19% → 48% |
| OT 1:55 | FLA | Eetu Luostarinen from Gustav Forsling, Sam Reinhart | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McMichael L | 7:59 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.08 | +0.64 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 22:10 | 1 | 2 | +0.61 | +0.04 | +0.53 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Daniel Sprong R | 16:27 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.09 | +0.43 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 25:24 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.17 | +0.63 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 7:03 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 12:37 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 19:39 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 18:28 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 17:13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 18:51 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 16:18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 11:13 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 24:19 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Leason R | 8:35 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.11 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 19:08 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.24 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 22:45 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 18:51 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 13:19 | −0.53 | +0.06 | −0.40 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 36:22 | −0.44 |
| Ilya Samsonov G | 25:31 | −1.55 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksander Barkov C | 23:24 | 2 | +1.23 | +0.05 | +1.11 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 13:27 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.11 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 27:36 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.04 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 20:11 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.01 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Connauton D | 12:16 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 16:51 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:37 | 2 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 14:36 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 13:44 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:54 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 17:06 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 12:12 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 10:21 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Maxim Mamin C | 11:08 | −0.24 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 14:59 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 17:17 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Chase Priskie D | 10:37 | −0.44 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 19:29 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.08 | −0.50 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 20:00 | +1.08 |
| Spencer Knight G | 41:55 | −1.81 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.