CBJ beat COL 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CBJ 2.4, COL 2.7), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jake Bean scored at 1:12 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Jonas Johansson allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:32 | COL | Logan O'Connor from Nazem Kadri | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 12:24 | COL | Bowen Byram from Nazem Kadri, Gabriel Landeskog | 0–2 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 16:55 |  CBJ | Jake Bean from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andrew Peeke | 1–2 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 1:13 | CBJ | Cole Sillinger from Jakub Voracek, Patrik Laine | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 4:26 | CBJ | Cole Sillinger from Gabriel Carlsson, Patrik Laine | 3–2 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 8:56 | CBJ | Boone Jenner from Gustav Nyquist, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 4–2 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 16:34 | COL | J.T. CompherPP from Bowen Byram, Nazem Kadri | 4–3 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 19:08 | COL | Bowen ByramPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog | 4–4 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 1:12 | CBJ | Jake Bean from Jakub Voracek, Cole Sillinger | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bean D | 25:24 | 2 | +1.96 | +0.23 | +1.73 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Sillinger C | 16:01 | 2 | 1 | +1.59 | +0.10 | +1.46 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Boone Jenner C | 21:53 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.06 | +0.51 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 22:24 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Voracek R | 16:00 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Kuraly C | 12:15 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 20:00 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.11 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 16:30 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gregory Hofmann C | 10:59 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Chinakhov R | 9:15 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gavin Bayreuther D | 19:29 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Carlsson D | 12:48 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 11:05 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 13:11 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Patrik Laine L | 15:36 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 24:47 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Roslovic C | 9:22 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 20:37 | 2 | −0.35 | +0.09 | −0.44 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 61:12 | −1.17 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowen Byram D | 25:17 | 2 | 1 | +1.25 | −0.16 | +1.45 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| J.T. Compher L | 21:39 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.71 | −0.03 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Logan O'Connor R | 17:03 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.02 | +0.42 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 16:30 | +0.18 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.37 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 17:51 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Kaut R | 6:05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 21:04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 20:07 | 3 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jacob MacDonald D | 8:21 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayson Megna C | 14:16 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:31 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.22 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Ryan Murray D | 17:52 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 13:18 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 12:36 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sampo Ranta L | 10:39 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Girard D | 24:37 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 7:58 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 25:50 | 2 | −0.59 | −0.07 | −0.58 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonas Johansson G | 60:14 | −2.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.