SJS beat BUF 5–3. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 1.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan Merkley scored at 12:49 of the first, moving SJS’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Craig Anderson allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:25 |  SJS | Jonathan Dahlen from William Eklund, Brent Burns | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 8:48 | BUF | Jeff SkinnerPP from Vinnie Hinostroza, Robert Hagg | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 12:49 | SJS | Ryan Merkley from Alexander Barabanov, Tomas Hertl | 1–2 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 6:13 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Rudolfs Balcers | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 13:33 | BUF | Drake Caggiula from Vinnie Hinostroza, Dylan Cozens | 2–3 | 11% → 25% |
| P3 6:02 | SJS | Mario Ferraro from Nick Merkley, Jasper Weatherby | 2–4 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 11:46 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Rudolfs Balcers, Mario Ferraro | 2–5 | 97% → 100% |
| P3 18:13 | BUF | Jeff Skinner from Tage Thompson, Rasmus Asplund | 3–5 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Skinner L | 20:11 | 2 | +1.37 | −0.02 | +1.43 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Caggiula L | 13:29 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.01 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Bryson D | 18:26 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 25:12 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 15:45 | 2 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Hayden C | 8:17 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Butcher D | 24:45 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 22:07 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Anders Bjork L | 9:18 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 16:58 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Hagg D | 16:17 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 18:22 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arttu Ruotsalainen C | 8:13 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 15:54 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 13:40 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Dylan Cozens C | 14:18 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:43 | −0.30 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Asplund C | 21:35 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.48 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 57:30 | −2.58 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:22 | 2 | 1 | +1.65 | +0.05 | +1.53 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.09 |
| Mario Ferraro D | 28:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.12 | +0.81 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Dahlen C | 14:55 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.12 | +0.71 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Merkley D | 14:36 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 15:43 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jaycob Megna D | 23:58 | +0.17 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 16:40 | +0.09 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| William Eklund L | 13:06 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nicolas Meloche D | 19:14 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Santeri Hatakka D | 7:41 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 27:26 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.07 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Barabanov L | 16:27 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Couture C | 17:53 | −0.08 | +0.19 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| John Leonard L | 9:54 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lane Pederson C | 14:11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rudolfs Balcers L | 17:37 | 2 | −0.26 | +0.17 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Merkley R | 10:30 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jasper Weatherby C | 10:21 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:00 | −1.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.