NSH beat CGY 3–2 in overtime. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Matt Duchene scored at 1:37 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Juuse Saros saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:11 |  NSH | Luke Kunin from Alexandre Carrier, Ryan Johansen | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 11:49 | CGY | Matthew TkachukPP from Sean Monahan, Elias Lindholm | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 18:37 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P3 3:20 | CGY | Oliver Kylington from Chris Tanev, Andrew Mangiapane | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| OT 1:37 | NSH | Matt Duchene from Mikael Granlund, Mattias Ekholm | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 12:24 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.68 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 17:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.04 | +0.45 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Luke Kunin C | 16:00 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.21 | +0.72 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Borowiecki D | 10:49 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 10:03 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 15:56 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 11:52 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 14:56 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 13:57 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Carrier D | 23:48 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 24:49 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dante Fabbro D | 18:34 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 10:07 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:15 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Colton Sissons C | 14:17 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 17:24 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Tanner Jeannot L | 15:32 | −0.40 | −0.20 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 26:05 | −0.76 | −0.34 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 61:37 | +2.21 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Kylington D | 19:19 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 22:41 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.18 | +0.15 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 16:08 | +0.29 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 17:51 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 22:34 | +0.24 | +0.30 | −0.36 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:21 | +0.13 | +0.17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 13:32 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:00 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 15:32 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Pitlick C | 13:06 | +0.01 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 17:04 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 13:10 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 1:51 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 15:04 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:26 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 13:16 | −0.42 | −0.05 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 22:25 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.17 | −0.64 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 15:11 | −0.99 | +0.04 | −0.80 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:57 | −1.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.